Even before assuming office, Guatemala’s President Bernardo Arévalo faced a relentless assault. The Public Prosecutor’s Office, under Attorney General Consuelo Porras – a figure the United States government has identified as antidemocratic and corrupt – initiated a systematic campaign against him. This wasn’t simply legal scrutiny; it was the opening salvo in a struggle for the very soul of Guatemala’s justice system.
On the night of October 26th, President Arévalo publicly denounced a brazen attempt to overthrow his government. He accused the Prosecutor’s Office and elements within the judiciary of fabricating criminal cases, targeting not only him but also Indigenous leaders who bravely defended the results of the June 2023 presidential elections. Months of uncertainty and politically motivated persecution preceded his inauguration on January 14, 2024.
Arévalo directly confronted Attorney General Porras, accusing her of attempting to dismantle the nation and singled out Judge Fredy Orellana, a close ally, for endorsing proceedings against innocent citizens. He warned that this “judicial onslaught,” built on illegal actions, aimed to derail democratic reforms and corrupt the selection of key justice officials in the critical year of 2026.
The crisis deepened with a security breach at Fraijanes II prison on October 29th, as members of the Barrio 18 gang escaped. Attorney General Porras seized upon this event, immediately requesting impeachment proceedings against Arévalo and Vice President Karin Herrera, alleging dereliction of duty. This was not an isolated incident, but a calculated move in a broader offensive.
Beyond the prison escape, a series of ongoing cases directly challenged the legitimacy of the 2023 election, where Arévalo’s Movimiento Semilla party emerged as a powerful force. Analysts believe these actions weren’t simply about criminalizing the ruling party, but about systematically weakening its institutional capacity in preparation for the pivotal appointments scheduled for 2026.
Manfredo Marroquín, a lawyer and president of Acción Ciudadana, emphasized the high stakes: “Elections to renew authorities of justice institutions are scheduled for 2026, and whether the threat of a coup remains will depend on the final composition of these institutions.” The future of Guatemalan democracy hung in the balance.
The Public Prosecutor’s Office launched approximately twelve judicial and political actions aimed at blocking Arévalo’s ascent to power, restricting his ability to govern, and undermining his presidency. The initial attack, the “Semilla Corruption” case, alleged forged signatures during the party’s registration, triggering raids on the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and attempts to dissolve the party.
Throughout 2024 and 2025, the Prosecutor’s Office relentlessly pursued new avenues of attack. Charges were filed against former electoral officials, and theories questioning the election results were aggressively promoted, fueling narratives of fraud. Judge Orellana, sanctioned by the U.S. in 2023, issued rulings to suspend Movimiento Semilla, order arrests, and attempt to invalidate the party altogether.
The prosecutions extended beyond political figures, targeting Indigenous leaders who peacefully protested to defend the election results and community authorities who supported the democratic transition. By late 2025, the prison break provided further justification for an impeachment request, accusing Arévalo and Herrera of negligence. Investigations into the administration’s security officials followed, aiming to directly implicate the president.
These twelve actions – impeachment requests, criminal complaints, raids, seizure of electoral documents, charges against social leaders, and attacks on the Semilla party – collectively represent what constitutional lawyers describe as a “judicial offensive.” It wasn’t a conflict between the entire judiciary and the president, but a targeted assault by a co-opted faction within the system.
Constitutional lawyer Edgar Ortiz Romero stated that the objective was clear: “to erase the political party that won.” Whether it could be called a coup or something else, the intent remained the same – to dismantle the democratically elected government.
Understanding the current crisis requires looking back to the work of the now-defunct International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). This international body, tasked with investigating crime and human rights abuses, was terminated in 2019 by then-President Jimmy Morales.
Arévalo and his allies champion institutional reforms aligned with CICIG’s previous work. Experts argue that the current offensive is a backlash from powerful groups investigated by CICIG during the Morales and Alejandro Giammattei administrations, now seeking to reclaim their influence and obstruct deeper reforms.
While aggressively pursuing cases against the Arévalo administration, the Prosecutor’s Office has allowed numerous corruption complaints involving previous governments to languish. The “Hogar Seguro” tragedy, which claimed the lives of 41 girls, and infrastructure scandals remain unresolved, despite evidence uncovered by CICIG and the MP under Thelma Aldana.
Manfredo Marroquín emphasized that the Prosecutor’s Office had sought to block Arévalo’s rise to power and investigate him for corruption long before he took office. He described it as “a political test for a justice system that has been co-opted,” a struggle for power driven by impunity and corruption, led by forces previously investigated by CICIG.
Arévalo has invoked the Inter-American Democratic Charter of the Organization of American States (OAS) and appealed to the international community for continued attention. This reflects a growing concern that national institutions may not fully safeguard the separation of powers, given the threats of a coup and the looming second-tier elections.
In 2026, Congress must appoint new electoral judges, and Arévalo will select the next attorney general and head of the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Other oversight bodies, including the Constitutional Court and the Comptroller General, are also scheduled for reconfiguration. This makes 2026 a critical juncture.
Analysts warn that if the Prosecutor’s Office succeeds in weakening the president now, corrupt actors could secure a justice system aligned with their interests and perpetuate impunity. However, if Arévalo withstands the offensive, Guatemala could experience a turning point in the fight for judicial independence and a stronger democracy.
