The political landscape of northern Syria has undergone a seismic shift in recent months, a rapid unraveling of stability that threatens not only the Kurdish-led administration but also the region’s ancient Christian communities. Since the start of the year, Syrian government forces, alongside allied extremist groups, have relentlessly advanced into Rojava, the self-governing area also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.
This offensive isn’t simply about territory; it’s a strategic maneuver to isolate Rojava from its Kurdish allies in Iraqi Kurdistan, cutting off vital support lines. Damascus’s forces have focused on severing key roads, tightening a noose around the region and its people. The initial push included fierce fighting in the Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo, forcing a desperate withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces and triggering a new wave of civilian flight.
The speed of the collapse has been staggering. Within a mere forty-eight hours in January, the SDF lost approximately 80 percent of its controlled territory. A critical factor was the defection of Arab units within the SDF, joining the advancing government forces and causing front lines to disintegrate with alarming speed. This internal fracturing accelerated the loss of ground, leaving Kurdish forces increasingly vulnerable.
Now, the largest cities of Rojava – Hasakah and Qamishli – are under a tightening siege, effectively shrinking the Kurdish heartland to a precarious pocket. The vast areas of Reqa and Dêrazor have been ceded, leaving the SDF encircled and fighting for its very survival. This isn’t just a military defeat; it’s a humanitarian crisis unfolding in real-time.
The displaced are often those already displaced, a heartbreaking cycle of loss and upheaval. Many fleeing the recent fighting in Aleppo are refugees from Afrin, a once-thriving region seized by Turkey in 2018. Afrin, known as the “Green City,” was famed for its 14 million olive trees and a robust agricultural economy that sustained a prosperous middle class – a stark contrast to the desperation faced by its people today.
Before the Syrian civil war, Afrin stood as a beacon of stability, a sanctuary for those fleeing chaos elsewhere. It embraced diversity, prioritizing education, gender equality, and cultural expression. But since 2018, the people of Afrin have endured multiple displacements, forced to flee repeatedly between camps, overcrowded cities, and the northeast, constantly searching for safety and sustenance.
The collapse of authority in late 2024 created a dangerous vacuum, quickly filled by escalating violence. Renewed clashes and Turkish drone strikes in January and February 2026 triggered yet another mass exodus. While some have cautiously returned home with the consolidation of government control, those fearing retribution – particularly minorities and Christians – remain trapped in the dwindling Kurdish-controlled areas.
Qamishli is now overwhelmed, hosting at least 100,000 displaced people. Local authorities are struggling to provide basic necessities, with families crammed into schools, mosques, and already strained host homes. The city’s infrastructure, repeatedly targeted by Turkish airstrikes, is crumbling, leaving residents without electricity and clean water.
The situation is further complicated by the escape of ISIS prisoners from camps now under Damascus control. The U.S. military has begun relocating detainees to Iraq, aiming to move up to 7,000 of the approximately 9,000 to 10,000 currently held. This desperate measure underscores the escalating security risks and the potential for a resurgence of extremist activity.
Rojava isn’t just a Kurdish refuge; it’s a vital haven for some of the oldest continuous Christian communities in the world – Assyrians, Syriacs, Chaldeans, and Armenians. These communities have thrived under the protection of the SDF, actively participating in both the civilian government and defense forces. Their future now hangs in the balance.
Surrounded by the Syrian government and its extremist allies, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, and facing direct attacks from ISIS and Turkey, the autonomous zone is on the brink of collapse. If Rojava falls, it could spell the end for the largest remaining Christian communities in the region, erasing centuries of history and cultural heritage.
