South Sudan and Ethiopia have separately chosen highly anticipated national dialogue forums aimed at preventing recurrence of conflicts and focusing on national inclusion. But critics say participants are preselected to isolate rivals.
South Sudan, which hasn’t seen peace in 15 years of independence, is due to launch an inter-party dialogue in August aimed at bringing together political parties and hold-out groups ahead of the country’s planned December 2026 elections.
Read:South Sudan marks 15 years of independence in crisis
However, it is highly uncertain if First Vice President Riek Machar will be accommodated in the upcoming dialogue.
His participation is the subject of a major political standoff, as he remains under house arrest in Juba facing ongoing treason and related charges.
Ethiopia, on its part, officially kicked off its historic National Dialogue Conference in Addis Ababa on July 15, 2026.
The conference brings together around 4,000 delegates representing diverse groups from across the country to discuss eight foundational pillars aimed at resolving political divisions, mending historical rifts, and establishing lasting national consensus.
The opening ceremony brought together more than 4,000 representatives from across Ethiopia, and included Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopian National Dialogue Chief Commissioner Professor Mesfin Araya, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, African Union Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, and IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu.
The gathering is widely seen as a pivotal opportunity to address deep-rooted socio-political divisions and break the cycle of long-standing political confrontations through dialogue.
The conference came to fruition following years of grassroots consultations and agenda-gathering by the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) – an independent body established by parliament in 2021 to facilitate a comprehensive and inclusive national dialogue.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says Ethiopia’s National Dialogue is a major step toward peace, unity, and a shared future. “The beginning of tomorrow’s dialogue process is not merely an ordinary political forum. It is also the beginning of a new chapter in our history and one that will determine the destiny of both our generation and those to come, as well as our shared hopes for the future,” said Dr Abiy. “To all of you who are committed to securing lasting peace, stability, and comprehensive prosperity for our country, and who care deeply about Ethiopia’s greatness: the opportunity is here, and the time is now.”
While government officials champion the event as a historic opportunity to replace cycles of political confrontation with sustainable consensus, its long-term success hinges on achieving a simultaneous cessation of hostilities in restive areas like Oromia and Amhara.
The Tigray region remains highly unstable with renewed clashes, political power struggles, and an escalating military build-up.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) pushed out the federal government-backed interim administration, reasserting control over the region.
Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, offered perhaps the most forceful warning, drawing on Nigeria's own painful historical experience.
"War does not bring any benefits," he said, adding that "a civil war is more serious and destructive than a war with an external enemy. We must (therefore) protect ourselves from civil war and conflict."
For South Sudan, the forum is to be convened by the Office of the Senior Presidential Envoy on Special Programmes, aiming to unite political factions and lay the groundwork for a peaceful democratic transition.
It is expected to bring together all political parties, including groups that are not part of the 2018 peace deal, as part of efforts to broaden participation in the country’s transition.
The African Union’s High-Level Ad Hoc Committee on South Sudan (AU C5) delegation last week met with various stakeholders in Juba including the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (R-JMEC).
The meeting revived debate over Riek Machar's detention and South Sudan's political situation, including preparations for elections and concerns over his detention. The African Union has been calling for a political solution, including freeing of Machar and his allies to save the 2018 peace agreement from collapsing.
But South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit has argued that the matter is before the courts and that any decision on Dr Machar's release should be made through the legal process rather than by the President.
The dialogue, however, has some critics who say it won’t amount to much if some people are excluded. “Getting people together for the dialogue is a step in the right direction. However, it is important to know how the dialogue is being facilitated especially in South Sudan. It is already clear that the dialogue is organised by Salva Kiir excluding his rivals,” said Prof Okumu Wafula, the Executive Director of The Borders Institute (TBI), who previously served as the capacity building expert for the AU Border Programme (AUBP). “The biggest challenge is, however, the implementation of the outcomes of the dialogue. If not all parties are in agreement, it is a waste of time coming up with resolutions that are not binding with the other parties.” “The importance of third parties’ involvement such as the AU, IGAD, and other regional organisations is very important. But then would these third parties now influence the outcome of the dialogue? It is highly uncertain if First Vice President Machar will be accommodated in the upcoming dialogue,” said Prof Wafula. He was referring to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which mediated the 2018 peace deal.
South Sudan’s Human Rights Activist Ter Manyang Gatwech sees the dialogue as one of the opportunities to bring peace to South Sudan but cautions that the elections in December may face delays if the R-ARCSS agreement is not fully implemented. “We welcome the payment of $4.5 million by the Government of South Sudan toward the acquisition of the National Elections Commission (NEC) headquarters. This is a positive step toward strengthening democratic institutions,” said Gatwech. “However, the elections in December 2026 may face delays due to incomplete implementation of key provisions under the R-ARCSS agreement and pending reforms to the NEC Act.”
He said there is need for urgent restructuring of the NEC leadership, to ensure inclusivity, neutrality, and public trust.
Critics argue that Ethiopia’s National Dialogue is severely compromised by a lack of genuine inclusivity, legitimacy deficits, and undue government interference.
The Caucus of Opposition Parties allege that the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) lacks independence and is being used by Prime Minister Abiy’s ruling party to legitimise its administration and policies rather than to enact real democratic reforms.
