Ernest Hemingway, through his character Mike Campbell in "The Sun Also Rises," described financial ruin as happening “two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.” This chilling observation echoes with startling accuracy when examining the current state of several large, traditionally blue states.
California, long considered a beacon of progress, now faces a stark reality: projected losses of four congressional seats in the 2030 census due to a shrinking population. This isn’t a distant threat, but a consequence unfolding as major corporations, like Wells Fargo and Quantum, abandon the Golden State for more favorable climates.
Miami is rapidly emerging as a new hub for innovation, earning the moniker “the new Silicon Valley.” This shift isn’t isolated to California; Illinois and New York are also experiencing significant out-migration, signaling a deeper, systemic issue.
The departure of influential figures like Ken Griffin, whose Citadel Hedge Fund moved from Chicago to Florida in 2022, underscores the trend. Both Illinois and New York are projected to lose between two and four congressional seats, mirroring California’s decline.
The core issue driving this exodus is a growing dissatisfaction with the economic policies of these blue states. High taxes, expansive spending, restrictive regulations, and stringent environmental policies are stifling economic growth and individual opportunity.
In contrast, states like Florida and Texas are attracting businesses and residents by prioritizing capital, free markets, and entrepreneurial freedom. These states are not just holding steady, but thriving, and are projected to gain congressional seats in 2030.
The data paints a clear picture: red states consistently dominate rankings for GDP growth, job creation, capital investment, and population influx, as measured by indicators like the U-Haul index. Blue states, conversely, consistently occupy the bottom rungs.
This isn’t simply about weather or beaches. States like Utah, Idaho, and Montana, lacking those traditional draws, are still consistently ranked among the most desirable places to live and work, demonstrating that economic freedom is a powerful magnet.
The warning signs have been present for years. California hasn’t gained a congressional seat since 2000, and Illinois and New York haven’t seen gains for even longer. Yet, political leaders in these states have largely ignored the underlying causes of their economic stagnation.
Now, the consequences are becoming unavoidable. The loss of congressional seats translates directly to diminished political influence in Washington D.C., and ultimately, to financial instability. The slow erosion of economic vitality is accelerating towards a critical point.
Mike Campbell understood the insidious nature of financial collapse. His observation about it happening “gradually and then suddenly” serves as a potent warning. Blue states, facing a similar trajectory, would be wise to heed the lesson before it’s too late.
