A recent University of Texas poll reveals a significant lead for U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Democratic Senate primary, placing her 12 percentage points ahead of opponent James Talarico. The survey, conducted throughout February, paints a clear picture of the current dynamics among likely Democratic voters.
The poll, based on responses from 369 voters, indicates Crockett holds 56% of the support, while Talarico garners 44%. While a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points exists, the numbers suggest a substantial advantage for Crockett as the primary election approaches.
Crockett’s strength appears deeply rooted in strong support from Black voters, where she commands an impressive 87% approval. This base, combined with advantages among seniors and voters without a college degree, fuels her overall lead.
Talarico finds his strongest support among white voters, narrowly leading Crockett by six points within that demographic. However, Hispanic voters are more divided, with Crockett maintaining a slight four-point edge in that crucial voting bloc.
The campaign has taken a charged turn, with Crockett recently raising concerns about racially motivated attacks from her opponent and his supporters. She pointed to specific advertising tactics as evidence, stating she recognizes patterns from her experience as a civil rights lawyer.
Crockett emphasized that her identity as a Black woman is not the core of her campaign, but rather her qualifications and experience. She expressed surprise at being “attacked from the left,” framing it as an unusual and concerning development.
On the Republican side, the race for Senate is proving to be a tight contest. Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn are statistically tied, with Paxton at 36% and Cornyn at 34%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing at 26%. A runoff election appears likely, as neither candidate has secured a majority.
The Republican survey, encompassing 350 registered voters with a 5.2% margin of error, also revealed mixed favorability ratings. Both Paxton and Cornyn have negative net ratings, while Crockett, Talarico, and Hunt all show positive scores.
In the race to replace Paxton as Attorney General, Congressman Chip Roy leads with 40%, closely followed by state Sen. Mayes Middleton at 38%. The Democratic contest for Attorney General sees former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski ahead of state Sen. Nathan Johnson, 52% to 28%.
The poll also indicates a surprising level of parity in the generic congressional ballot, with Republicans and Democrats tied at 42% each. Democrats hold a significant lead among Hispanic voters in this matchup, 50% to 31%, suggesting potential strength in key districts.
With early voting set to begin next week, these poll numbers offer a crucial snapshot of the Texas primary landscape, highlighting both clear frontrunners and fiercely contested races.
