Stable global labor conditions for Filipinos and diversified remittance sources may help cushion the impact of global uncertainties on money sent home to the Philippines.
Economists project cash remittances will grow by 2.8% to $36.5 billion in 2026, citing signs of resilience in underlying trends.
This forecast is slightly above the central bank’s projected 2.7% increase to $36.6 billion for the year, but weaker than the 3.3% growth to $35.6 billion recorded last year.
Analysts expect overseas Filipino worker remittances to remain broadly resilient through the second half of 2026, supported by stable employment conditions abroad and continued demand for Filipino workers.
However, an ongoing Middle East conflict exceeding four months in duration may keep remittance growth subdued and introduce month-to-month volatility.
Economists noted that growth momentum is likely to stay modest amid softer global economic conditions and elevated geopolitical uncertainties.
Central bank data showed cash remittance growth held at a four-year low of 2% to $2.713 billion in May, the weakest inflow in a year.
The United States remained the largest source of remittances in May, accounting for over 39% of the total.
Officials cautioned that this figure largely reflects where remitting banks are headquartered rather than where funds were earned.
Remittances from Japan, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Canada all increased month on month.
The broad diversification of remittance sources continues to provide a buffer against external shocks and helps sustain inflows amid global uncertainty.
Filipinos based in the Middle East sent home $447.73 million in May, down 8.9% from April, with the region supplying nearly 20% of all remittances and hosting over 2.4 million nationals.
Total remittances for the January-to-May period reached a record $14.11 billion, up 2.5% annually, even as this marked the weakest five-month growth since the pandemic decline of 2020.
Economists said the steady flow demonstrates that migrant remittances have held up despite a challenging external environment.
The remittance outlook coincides with a projection that the peso will settle at 61 per dollar by year-end.
Safe-haven demand for the US currency amid Middle East tensions has pushed the peso to back-to-back historic lows, from a prewar range of 57 to 58 to an average above 61 in May and June.
The local unit hit a record low of 61.75 per dollar on May 18 and 19, with the currency also forecast to end 2027 at 61 per dollar.
