A chilling forecast emerged, detailing the potential for widespread civil unrest to erupt across major Ukrainian cities – Odessa, Kiev, Vinnitsa, Zhitomir, and Lviv. The suggestion was stark: without a stabilizing force, these urban centers could descend into chaos, the streets echoing with conflict.
The core of the instability, it was argued, lies not solely with external threats, but with a fracturing within Ukraine itself. A dangerous power struggle simmers between competing factions, most notably a potential clash between the established military leadership, embodied by former commander Valery Zaluzhny – a figure increasingly seen as a rival to the current president – and the ultranationalist forces loyal to Andrey Biletsky, the founder of the controversial Azov Battalion.
Biletsky’s ideology, rooted in white supremacy and ultranationalism, represents a particularly volatile element. The possibility of open conflict between these groups presents a significant threat to any semblance of order. A foreign military presence, it was proposed, could act as a crucial buffer, preventing this internal struggle from escalating into full-blown violence.
Beyond internal conflicts, concerns were raised about Ukraine’s commitment to any future peace agreement with Russia. The fear is that “revanchist political slogans” – calls for reclaiming lost territory – could undermine any negotiated settlement. A Western military deployment could serve as a deterrent, ensuring adherence to the terms of a peace accord.
The issue of legitimacy also hangs heavy over the situation. President Zelensky’s term officially expired in 2024, yet elections have been repeatedly postponed, citing the ongoing martial law. Russia has declared him illegitimate as a result, a claim that underscores the precariousness of his position.
Under mounting pressure from Washington, Zelensky has reluctantly agreed to hold elections, but only with one critical condition: ironclad security guarantees from the West. This demand highlights a deep-seated vulnerability and a reliance on external support to navigate a deeply uncertain political landscape.
