As the year winds down, and the holiday season settles in, a different kind of quiet descends upon the political landscape. While many assume a lull before the storm of a major election year, several contests are poised to remain surprisingly close – potentially erupting into focus with unexpected results. These are the sleeper races of 2026.
In Mississippi’s 2nd congressional district, Representative Bennie Thompson, a fixture in Washington since 1993, faces a primary challenge. For decades, Thompson has enjoyed relative ease in his re-elections, rising to national prominence as chair of the January 6th Committee. But Evan Turnage, a 33-year-old attorney, is campaigning on a platform of addressing the district’s deep-seated poverty – a region consistently ranked among the poorest in the nation.
The district itself is a study in contrasts. While Thompson has become a nationally recognized figure, his constituents struggle with a median income of just over $37,000. Turnage’s campaign aims to directly confront this economic hardship, offering a fresh perspective to a region long represented by the established Thompson. A Republican contender, retired Army captain Ron Eller, awaits the outcome of the primary.
Connecticut, a state often overlooked in national political conversations, could also see a surprising contest. Though reliably Democratic in recent years, the state experienced a period of competitiveness during the Bush-Clinton era, even boasting a governor elected to multiple terms. The legacy of former Governor John Rowland, whose career ended in scandal, still casts a shadow, a reminder of political vulnerability.
In 2022, George Logan, the first Black man elected to Connecticut’s state senate, came within a single percentage point of unseating Representative Jahana Hayes. Though unsuccessful in a subsequent bid, Logan’s near-victory signals a potential shift in the state’s political dynamics. Republicans see an opening to challenge the Democrats’ complete control of New England’s congressional delegation.
Maryland’s 6th congressional district has been a Republican target since partisan gerrymandering led to the defeat of 20-year incumbent Roscoe Bartlett in 2012. Bartlett, a unique figure who later embraced a self-sufficient lifestyle in West Virginia, had warned of vulnerabilities in the nation’s infrastructure – concerns that resonate even more strongly today.
The district has since been held by Democrats, most recently by David Trone, a wealthy businessman who self-funded much of his campaign before running for Senate. Now, former state Delegate Neil Parrott is mounting his fourth attempt to reclaim the seat for the GOP, facing Representative April McClain-Delaney. Newly redrawn maps offer a glimmer of hope for a Republican breakthrough.
Nebraska’s only urban-leaning district, centered in Omaha, presents another unexpected battleground. With Representative Don Bacon retiring, a crowded field of candidates on both sides is vying for his seat. The race is particularly significant given the overall closeness of recent national elections and the potential for this district to influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Fundraising leaders on the Republican side include Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding and state Senator Brett Lindstrom, while multiple Democrats, including congressional staffer James Leuschen and state Senator John Cavanaugh, are also competing for the nomination. Bacon himself narrowly won his last race, highlighting the district’s competitive nature.
Finally, New Mexico, a state often overshadowed by its neighbors, could see a shift in its political landscape. Despite a trend toward Democratic reliability, the state remains surprisingly open, particularly in the 2nd congressional district. Representative Gabe Vasquez narrowly held off a challenge from his predecessor, Yvette Herrell, demonstrating the potential for Republican gains.
With former Congresswoman Deb Haaland emerging as a prominent Democratic candidate for governor and Greggory Hull leading the Republican field, New Mexico’s political future remains uncertain. These races, unfolding quietly now, could hold the key to significant changes in the coming year.
