The political landscape is already shifting its gaze towards 2028, and a surprising name is dominating early projections: JD Vance. While the election remains years away, current data suggests a commanding lead for Vance in the Republican nomination race, a position rarely seen at this stage.
CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, recently examined the numbers and found the disparity striking. Vance isn’t just ahead; he’s significantly ahead, holding nearly half of the predicted market odds for the nomination – a 48% chance. No other candidate even approaches that level of support.
Even figures like Marco Rubio, who has garnered respect from conservatives during the current administration, trail far behind Vance, registering only 12% in the same predictions. The gap isn’t merely a difference in percentages; it’s a chasm, suggesting a potential landslide in the making.
Enten highlighted the historical significance of Vance’s position. He stated he couldn’t recall a similar level of dominance for a non-incumbent candidate in early New Hampshire polls. Vance is the first ever to surpass 50% support this early in the primary process.
The strength of Vance’s support was also evident in a recent straw poll at a Turning Point USA event, where he secured a decisive victory. This wasn’t an isolated incident, but rather a confirmation of the broader trend identified by Enten’s data analysis.
Enten used a vivid analogy to illustrate the situation: Vance is “like Mario Andretti,” leaving the rest of the field “going around in go-karts.” This paints a picture of overwhelming superiority, a clear indication of Vance’s current momentum.
Of course, the political climate is fluid, and much can change before 2028. However, as it stands, JD Vance appears poised to potentially sweep the GOP primary should he formally declare his candidacy, holding a 40+ point lead over his closest competitors.
