For over six decades, a fervent hope for change has burned within the Cuban exile community, primarily in Miami. Many arrived with nothing after 1959, forced to rebuild lives as everyday workers after once being landowners and professionals, carrying the weight of a lost homeland.
Waves of departures followed – the Freedom Flights and the Mariel Boatlift – swelling the Cuban population in the United States to over a million. Miami transformed into a vibrant Latin American city, yet the dream of a free Cuba never faded, passed down through generations.
Marco Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants and a prominent voice in American politics, grew up steeped in these memories and the unwavering opposition to socialism. The exile community, though often divided on strategy, found itself united by a renewed sense of anticipation as a new approach emerged from Washington.
When a clear stance was taken, a surge of emotion erupted online from Cubans both on and off the island. Many celebrated, believing a 67-year nightmare was finally nearing its end, while others demanded decisive action, drawing parallels to recent events in Venezuela.
Inside Cuba, opposition leaders echoed the call for change. Figures like José Daniel Ferrer recognized the message as a vital warning, while others emphasized the need for external support to break free from oppression.
The situation in Cuba had become critically fragile. The loss of Venezuelan oil, Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, and China’s growing impatience with unpaid debts had left the regime vulnerable, and an exhausted population yearned for relief.
A multi-faceted strategy was implemented, focused on economic pressure rather than military intervention. The first step was a complete halt to Venezuelan oil shipments, cutting off approximately 70 percent of Cuba’s supply – a crippling blow.
Further pressure was applied to alternative suppliers, significantly reducing shipments from Mexico and Russia. These efforts, combined with existing sanctions and Cuba’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, plunged the nation into its deepest crisis since 1991.
The most visible consequence was a devastating energy crisis. Cuba endured at least five nationwide blackouts in a single year, with some provinces experiencing power outages lasting over 20 hours each day. An aging electrical grid, largely unchanged since the Cold War, simply couldn’t cope.
The broader economy spiraled downward, contracting by 11 percent since 2020, with inflation soaring. The Cuban peso plummeted on the informal market, and sugar production reached a historic low. A mass exodus began, with over 12 percent of the population fleeing the island since 2021.
Immigration was further restricted, and a deliberate psychological campaign was launched, with predictions of the regime’s imminent collapse dominating public discourse. A demand for concessions was issued, though specific terms remained initially unclear.
A significant event occurred with the capture of a key figure, resulting in the deaths of 32 Cuban security personnel. This operation served as a stark demonstration of the Cuban forces’ vulnerability and sent shockwaves through the island.
Arguments for the strategy’s success centered on the unprecedented combination of factors: the complete oil cutoff, the crumbling infrastructure, the mass emigration, and the relentless blackouts. Public dissatisfaction with the Communist Party was overwhelming, and the military’s morale had been shaken.
However, the regime’s resilience couldn’t be ignored. It had survived decades of pressure, including the Soviet collapse and the Bay of Pigs invasion. Powerful factions within the military remained loyal, and a deeply ingrained system of repression remained firmly in place.
Despite past protests – including significant demonstrations in 2021 and 2024 – no major anti-government uprisings had occurred. The government’s brutal response to previous dissent, including lengthy prison sentences and constant surveillance, had instilled a climate of fear.
The aim was to force concrete concessions: the release of political prisoners, the opening of the economy to American businesses, and a realignment with Washington. But Cuba had weathered similar storms before, responding with rationing and tighter control rather than liberalization.
Cuba now faces its most precarious situation since 1991, caught in a vise of economic pressure and internal decay. Whether the regime will finally succumb, or once again demonstrate its capacity for endurance, remains to be seen.
