A stark message arrived from the U.S. Ambassador this week, delivered with unwavering directness: cease the current advertising campaign, prepare to accept tariffs, and understand the F-35 contract is central to any agreement. The response from certain influential circles in Canada was, to put it mildly, explosive.
The current dispute centers heavily on the F-35 fighter jet, a program the government has prominently featured alongside a recent royal visit. Claims of 10,000 Canadian jobs stemming from the construction of Saab Gripen jets have taken center stage, yet a closer look reveals a vastly different reality.
The promise of such a massive job creation figure feels detached from practical experience. Brazil, currently assembling Gripen jets within its own borders and purchasing 36 of them, has seen only 60 direct jobs created at the Embraer plant, with a total of 200 jobs “associated” with the project. Even tripling Brazil’s order doesn’t come close to the 10,000 jobs being touted.
Meanwhile, a signed agreement exists for the purchase of 88 F-35s, a deal projected to generate 2,500 to 3,000 direct jobs for Canadian parts suppliers and $3.2 million in Canadian content per aircraft. Now, that agreement is threatened, jeopardized by a broader trade dispute with the U.S.
The Ambassador’s warning – that cancelling the F-35 contract could have consequences, potentially hindering a larger trade deal – has been met with accusations of an ultimatum. However, it’s crucial to remember that Canada initiated this situation, threatening to abandon a signed contract for the second time, driven by political considerations.
Adding to the complexity, Canada is simultaneously seeking trade conditions unavailable to other nations – complete, tariff-free access to the U.S. market. This pursuit comes after already implementing retaliatory tariffs, removing American alcohol from government stores, and launching campaigns discouraging travel and purchases of American goods.
A degree of realism is needed. The expectation of unfettered access to the U.S. market is no longer tenable. Since February, warnings have surfaced regarding the likelihood of any new agreement including a minimum tariff structure, a sentiment echoed by the Prime Minister himself during the summer.
The Ambassador has now openly confirmed that a tariff-free deal for Canada is improbable. The political landscape in Washington has fundamentally shifted. The era of negotiating as if it were 1985 is over. Canada must now choose between accepting the best possible deal, even with tariffs, or facing continued punitive measures.
The current path leads to isolation and hardship, with frontline workers bearing the brunt of the consequences, not the politicians engaged in this struggle. The focus must shift to supporting those families and communities directly impacted by these economic pressures.
The reality is this: clinging to outdated negotiating tactics will only prolong the pain. A pragmatic approach, acknowledging the new dynamics at play, is essential to securing a future that protects Canadian jobs and livelihoods.
