Former federal minister Steven Guilbeault ignited a political firestorm upon leaving cabinet, claiming a recent energy agreement between the federal government and Alberta is actively bolstering the separatist movement in Quebec. He argued that prioritizing energy development over climate goals would fuel discontent and strengthen calls for Quebec’s independence.
However, public opinion paints a different picture. Recent polling data reveals that the vast majority of Quebecers – roughly two-thirds – remain opposed to separation. While the separatist Parti Quebecois currently leads in provincial polls, their platform of holding another referendum faces significant headwinds.
A Leger poll indicates that only 28% of Quebecers desire a referendum before 2030, and a substantial 55% doubt Quebec possesses the necessary financial strength to thrive as an independent nation. Concerns closer to home dominate the Quebec landscape, mirroring national anxieties about the rising cost of living, healthcare access, and housing affordability.
While environmental concerns are slightly elevated in Quebec compared to the national average, they still rank lower in priority, capturing the attention of 23% of respondents. The dominant issues are far more immediate and impactful to daily life.
National polling, conducted by Abacus Data following the agreement, shows 55% support for the energy deal. Even in Quebec, support reached 42%, with opinions aligning with the national perspective. A majority of Quebecers – 52% – view the agreement as a pragmatic compromise offering potential economic benefits, even if it means a slight shift in environmental policy.
Interestingly, only 28% of Quebecers perceive the agreement as a betrayal of previous commitments to climate action. This suggests a willingness to consider economic realities alongside environmental ideals. Guilbeault’s own influence within Quebec appears limited, further diminishing the impact of his claims.
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto notes that Guilbeault holds a barely positive view among Quebecers – 25% positive versus 19% negative. This contrasts sharply with the significantly higher positive rating of Prime Minister Carney, who enjoys a +25% net positive rating in the province (48% positive, 23% negative).
The core question, as highlighted by the Abacus Data poll, revolves around Canada’s ability to balance energy development with climate goals. The majority of Canadians, including a significant portion of Quebecers, believe this dual path is achievable. Over half in Quebec agree that the country can successfully pursue both objectives simultaneously.
Despite the agreement’s potential, significant obstacles remain before a new pipeline transporting Alberta’s resources to British Columbia and onward to Asian markets becomes a reality. Separatist factions will likely exploit the issue, attempting to stoke division by suggesting similar compromises could be imposed upon Quebec.
Ultimately, the situation underscores a familiar pattern: separatist movements leveraging any perceived federal overreach to advance their agenda of disunity. The data, however, suggests Guilbeault’s warnings are not resonating with the broader Quebec populace, who are focused on more pressing, everyday concerns.
