A quiet current of unease is running through Canada, and it’s not about political divides – it’s about a deeper, more fundamental anxiety about what lies ahead. Polling data reveals a widespread “precarity mindset,” a persistent feeling of insecurity that’s unexpectedly acting as a powerful force *against* the separatist movements gaining traction in both Alberta and Quebec.
According to David Coletto, a leading pollster with Abacus Data, this isn’t about fervent nationalism or unwavering loyalty to the country. It’s a pragmatic calculation: when people feel vulnerable, they instinctively cling to the perceived safety of the known, even if imperfect. A successful push for separation in either province hinges on a significant shift in this collective emotional state.
Alberta is already taking steps toward a potential referendum, with the election agency recently approving the wording for a separation question. However, simply getting the question on the ballot isn’t enough. Organizers must gather substantial signatures, and even then, the prevailing mood of uncertainty could prove insurmountable.
In Quebec, the Parti Quebecois is openly campaigning on a promise of another sovereignty referendum, slated for 2026. But the historical conditions that fueled past separatist movements are demonstrably weaker now. The political landscape has shifted, and the anxieties of the population are focused elsewhere.
Coletto’s analysis points to a crucial difference between the 1990s, when separatist sentiment peaked, and today. Voters are grappling with heightened economic instability, a more volatile global stage, and a growing sense of external threats. This environment, surprisingly, elevates the perceived value of national unity and collective security.
The current climate suggests that the desire for stability outweighs the appeal of radical change. While separatist voices may continue to be heard, the underlying anxieties of Canadians are, for now, acting as a powerful, if unexpected, safeguard against a fractured nation.
