For those dreaming of a classic, snow-dusted Christmas in southern Ontario, a reality check is in order. A picturesque snowfall on Christmas Day isn’t impossible, but it’s about as likely as finding an open parking space at a bustling Costco – a fortunate surprise, not a guarantee.
While a complete absence of snow isn’t certain, especially later in the day, current forecasts lean towards rain. The possibility of flurries overnight exists, potentially leaving a mere centimetre of accumulation. Don’t expect a blanket of white for those Christmas morning photos.
The days leading up to the holiday offer a mixed bag. Monday night brings a 40% chance of flurries across much of southern Ontario, with some areas potentially seeing up to 10 cm of snow by Tuesday morning. However, this is quickly followed by the arrival of rain.
Tuesday’s forecast includes showers and a concerning risk of freezing rain, with temperatures climbing to a relatively mild 6°C. A sharp drop is expected overnight, plunging temperatures to -10°C. Travel could be significantly impacted.
Toronto Pearson International Airport is already preparing for the incoming weather. Crews are working to clear runways and taxiways, and de-icing facilities are on standby, anticipating 5 to 10 cm of snow overnight into Tuesday. Hundreds of flights are still scheduled, but conditions remain fluid.
Christmas Eve will be cloudy with a high of 1°C, offering little hope for a last-minute snowfall. Christmas Day itself is predicted to be cloudy and mild, reaching 2°C before dropping to -2°C in the evening.
Boxing Day presents further challenges, with the potential for freezing rain or rain and a high of 0°C. The possibility of snow lingers, but showers are expected throughout the weekend. Shoppers and travellers should prepare for potentially treacherous conditions.
While southern Ontario braces for a potentially wet holiday, other parts of the province are facing extreme cold. Communities like Fort Severn and Peawanuck are already under cold warnings, with wind chill values plummeting near -45°C.
Historically, the odds of a “white Christmas” – defined as at least 2 cm of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. – vary greatly across Canada. Toronto has a 36% chance, while Vancouver’s odds are a mere 8%. Some northern communities, like Iqaluit and Whitehorse, can all but guarantee a snowy Christmas.
Despite the current mild spell, long-range forecasts suggest that most of Canada will experience near-normal or even colder-than-normal temperatures throughout the remainder of winter. While thaws are expected, the bulk of the season promises a return to more traditional winter conditions.
