Just as Clement Moore’s poem depicts a quiet night before a magical arrival, several seemingly settled election contests are poised for unexpected drama as the new year approaches. These aren’t the races dominating headlines, but ones that could shift the political landscape with surprising results.
Consider Mississippi’s 2nd congressional district. Representative Bennie Thompson, a fixture in Washington since 1993, has rarely faced serious opposition. He’s a nationally recognized figure, having chaired the January 6th Committee. But a new challenge has emerged – Evan Turnage, a 33-year-old attorney focused on combating the region’s deep-seated poverty, is mounting a primary bid against the long-serving incumbent.
Thompson’s district is among the poorest in the nation, a stark reality Turnage aims to address. He speaks of leveling the playing field, offering a vision of opportunity for families struggling to get by. On the Republican side, retired Army captain Ron Eller faces an uphill battle to unseat the winner of this Democratic primary.
Connecticut, often overlooked in national political conversations, is another state harboring potential surprises. While reliably Democratic in recent years, the state once saw competitive elections and even Republican governors. The memory of past contests lingers, hinting at a possible shift in the political winds.
In 2022, George Logan became the first Black man elected to Connecticut’s state senate, and narrowly lost a bid for Congress. Though he isn’t currently on the ballot, his close races demonstrate a Republican potential to challenge Democratic dominance in New England. The possibility of a competitive congressional race remains very real.
Maryland’s 6th congressional district has been a Republican target since partisan redistricting ousted a 20-year incumbent in 2012. Roscoe Bartlett, a unique conservative who later embraced a life off-the-grid, saw his rural district reshaped to include Washington, D.C. suburbs, leading to his defeat.
Now, former state Delegate Neil Parrott is making his fourth attempt to reclaim the seat, facing April McClain-Delaney, the wife of a previous representative. The district, redrawn after legal challenges to gerrymandering, may finally offer Republicans a genuine opportunity for victory in a traditionally Democratic state.
Nebraska’s only urban-leaning district, centered in Omaha, is also attracting attention. With Representative Don Bacon retiring, a scramble is underway on both sides to fill the vacancy. The race is already crowded, with several candidates vying for the moderate’s seat.
This district, which Bacon won by less than one percentage point in his last election, is shaping up as a crucial battleground. Recent Republican losses in other suburban areas suggest a tough fight ahead, even in a traditionally red state like Nebraska.
Finally, New Mexico, a state often overshadowed by its larger neighbors, presents a unique political dynamic. While lacking the massive urban centers of many blue states, New Mexico has been trending Democratic for years, with a growing focus on issues relevant to its diverse population.
Former Congresswoman Deb Haaland, who served as President Biden’s Interior Secretary, is a prominent contender in the Democratic field. The 2nd congressional district, a key battleground along the border, will be closely watched as a potential indicator of the state’s shifting political landscape.
