Four years ago, Myanmar’s military shattered a fragile democracy, seizing power in a brutal coup that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Now, on December 28, 2025, the junta is attempting to solidify its grip with a widely condemned election – a calculated maneuver to mask continued authoritarian rule.
The coup ignited a nationwide uprising, quickly escalating into a full-blown civil war. The military now battles a determined resistance comprised of the People’s Defense Force, a civilian-led movement, and long-standing ethnic armed organizations fighting for self-determination. Millions have been displaced, and an estimated 80% of the country is now under resistance control, yet a resolution remains tragically out of reach.
Major opposition parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and the influential Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), have refused to participate, denouncing the election as a sham. With legitimate leaders imprisoned or exiled, and millions living in fear, the conditions for a free and fair vote simply do not exist.
The junta’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is almost certain to claim victory, using the election as a deceptive tool to legitimize its continued power. A disturbing tactic to inflate participation numbers involves aggressively issuing national identification cards, even to those who previously lacked them.
In eastern Shan State, authorities are actively registering individuals, including newly eligible 18-year-olds, in a move seen as a blatant attempt to bolster support for the junta. A 59-year-old Shan woman, Pa Oo, believes this initiative is designed to swell the ranks of voters likely to favor the military.
Beyond the manipulation of the electoral process, a darker undercurrent is taking hold. Pa Oo describes a landscape where illegal activities flourish – gambling, drug dens, and KTV establishments – often linked to Chinese transnational crime organizations and armed militia groups. This environment is fueling a devastating rise in drug addiction among young people, with tragic consequences.
Chinese scam syndicates, shielded by armed groups, have infiltrated local communities, luring vulnerable youth with promises of high wages, only to trap many, particularly young women, in exploitative situations, including sex work. While ordinary families struggle, these criminal networks thrive, accumulating wealth and power.
The political divide is stark. The NLD, representing the pro-democracy movement, stands in opposition to the USDP, the military’s political arm. This same dynamic plays out among ethnic minority parties, with the SNLD aligning with the NLD and the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) leaning towards the USDP.
With the NLD and SNLD boycotting the election, only parties willing to operate within the junta’s framework are participating, effectively ensuring a predetermined outcome. A candidate from the SNDP, Sai Sur Han, admitted the election is unfair but rationalized participation as “doing something is better than doing nothing,” hoping to assist his local community if elected.
However, many remain deeply skeptical. Sai Loi Kham, a member of the SNLD, refused to comment, reflecting the widespread belief that the election is a charade. From across the border in Thailand, a Shan migrant worker, Sai Si Ha, voiced a common fear: the USDP will inevitably win, using the outcome to justify continued attacks on the People’s Defense Force and other ethnic armed groups.
The reality on the ground is harrowing. Potential voters are dodging landmines, fleeing forced conscription, or living under the constant threat of militia violence. The junta prepares for an election, but the voices of the Myanmar people – scattered, displaced, and silenced by fear – will be effectively drowned out.
There is growing concern that international powers might legitimize the election results, normalizing relations with the junta. Many in Myanmar desperately hope for meaningful intervention from the West, clinging to the possibility of support for their struggle for a genuine federal democracy. For now, the resistance continues its fight against a seemingly insurmountable force, fueled by a steady stream of weapons and resources from China and Russia.
