Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthi rebels to prepare to close a critical Red Sea gateway if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, a threat that could sharply disrupt global shipping. The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a vital waterway that connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, making it one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. Experts warn that even if the Houthis cannot completely seal the waterway, they could significantly disrupt shipping and raise costs and risks for commercial traffic.
The threat should be taken seriously, according to experts, as Iran has already signaled that the Bab al-Mandab could become part of its response to US attacks. Recent escalation and US strikes on Iran have led to increased tensions in the region. The Houthis have continued to develop their maritime capabilities, including missiles, drones, and sea mines, despite largely refraining from maritime attacks over the past year.
The consequences of renewed attacks on the Bab al-Mandab Strait would be severe, as Iran has already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a principal route for roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies. A substantial volume of Gulf oil has been redirected through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, making the Bab al-Mandab route a critical alternative. The strait now carries approximately 7% of global energy supplies, and any disruption could have far-reaching consequences for global trade and energy markets.
Experts warn that the Houthis may not need to physically control the waterway to disrupt shipping. Repeated attacks or even a credible threat of them could push major shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa, driving up insurance, fuel, and freight costs. The latest warning follows earlier Houthi threats against maritime traffic, including a complete ban on Israeli-owned ships in the Red Sea and a declaration that they are "legitimate targets."
The emerging threat has also renewed scrutiny of the Iranian weapons networks that helped build the Houthis' missile and drone arsenal. The fact that individuals convicted of trafficking Iranian weapons to the Houthis and leading terrorist operations are being released under a UN-brokered deal has raised concerns about the handling of Yemen's security crisis. The main beneficiary of this vacuum is Iran, which has a credible threat to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The United Nations has condemned Houthi attacks against ships in the Red Sea and called on all parties to avoid further escalation. The UN Secretary-General has warned that any disruptions or attacks would endanger the safety and security of seafarers, freedom of navigation, and the stability of global supply chains. The international community is watching the situation closely, as any disruption to the Bab al-Mandab Strait could have significant consequences for global trade and energy markets.
