Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, credits American intelligence for its crucial role in helping Kyiv penetrate Russia's extensive air-defense network. "You always have to give credit to the United States," Korniychuk said. "U.S. intelligence is helping Ukrainian missiles and drones avoid Russian anti-missile defense."
The U.S. has provided Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. This has allowed Ukrainian drones to reach deep inside Russia, putting pressure on the Russian system, even if they have not yet persuaded President Putin to change course. The majority of the Russian leadership understands that this is a crucial problem, but Putin personally does not.
Retired Lt. Gen. Richard Newton, a former U.S. Air Force assistant vice chief of staff, believes that the broader strategic picture is shifting in Ukraine's favor. "Throughout the conflict, the vast majority of the Russian homeland has been a sanctuary," Newton said. "However, over the last several months, Ukrainian drone attacks have reached deep inside Russia — up to 1,500 miles recently."
Ukraine's military has made significant gains, but they still face limitations. Russia continues to generate billions in energy revenue beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones. The European Union received 114 of the 118 cargoes shipped from Russia's Yamal LNG project between January and May, totaling 8.37 million metric tons and an estimated value of roughly $5.7 billion.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine's military has a 40-day deadline to substantially change the situation. Analysts caution that there is no way to predict whether Putin's system is approaching collapse. However, authoritarian regimes can appear stable until they unravel with extraordinary speed, as seen in the final months of the Soviet Union.
The question being asked by analysts is no longer whether Ukraine can hit Russia's economic engine, but how much sustained pressure that engine — and Putin's political system — can withstand. Ukraine's strikes have reached deep into Russia, strained its fuel system, and undermined the Kremlin's effort to keep the war distant from its population.
